Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian ARCH-Modell	ARCH-Modell (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1982 (ARCH); 1989 (Bayesian estimation)	1982
Urheber	Robert F. Engle (ARCH, 1982); Bayesian treatment: John Geweke (1989)	Robert F. Engle
Typ	Volatility model with Bayesian inference	Conditional volatility model
Wegweisende Quelle	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.
Aliasnamen	Bayesian ARCH, ARCH with Bayesian estimation, Bayesian conditional heteroskedasticity model, B-ARCH	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model
Verwandt	6	6
Zusammenfassung	The Bayesian ARCH model estimates Engle's Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification within a Bayesian framework. Instead of maximising a likelihood, it combines a prior distribution over the volatility parameters with the data likelihood to obtain a full posterior distribution, providing richer uncertainty quantification than classical maximum-likelihood ARCH.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.