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| Autoregressives Modell (AR)× | Moving Average (MA) Modell× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | Ökonometrie | Ökonometrie |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1970s (popularised 1976) | 1970 |
| Urheber≠ | George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins | Box and Jenkins |
| Typ≠ | Time series model | Linear time series model |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043 | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| Aliasnamen | AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process | MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA |
| Verwandt≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series. | The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods. |
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