Methoden vergleichen

	Autoregressives Modell (AR)	ARMA-Modell (Autoregressiver gleitender Durchschnitt)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1970s (popularised 1976)	1970
Urheber	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
Typ	Time series model	Time series model
Wegweisende Quelle	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Aliasnamen	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
Verwandt	6	5
Zusammenfassung	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.