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Model ARIMA (autoregresní integrovaný klouzavý průměr)×Bootstrap Inference×Dieboldův-Marianoův test rovnosti prediktivní přesnosti×
OborEkonometrieStatistikaEkonometrie
RodinaRegression modelRegression modelHypothesis test
Rok vzniku201519791995
TvůrceBox & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)Bradley EfronFrancis Diebold & Roberto Mariano
TypUnivariate time-series modelResampling-based inferenceNon-parametric forecast comparison test
Původní zdrojBox, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1-26. DOI ↗Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263. DOI ↗
Další názvyBox-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modelibootstrap, bootstrap resampling, nonparametric bootstrap, Bootstrap ÇıkarımıDM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi
Příbuzné553
ShrnutíARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).Bootstrap inference, introduced by Bradley Efron in 1979, estimates the sampling distribution of a statistic by repeatedly resampling the observed data with replacement. It requires no distributional assumption and produces reliable confidence intervals even in small samples.The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.
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ScholarGatePorovnat metody: ARIMA · Bootstrap Inference · Diebold-Mariano Test. Získáno 2026-06-19 z https://scholargate.app/cs/compare