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Model MA amb Trencament Estructural×Model de Mitjana Mòbil (MA)×
CampEconometriaEconometria
FamíliaRegression modelRegression model
Any d'origen1989–19921970
Autor originalPerron (1989); Zivot & Andrews (1992)Box and Jenkins
TipusTime series model with structural changeLinear time series model
Font seminalPerron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. DOI ↗Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
ÀliesMA model with structural change, broken MA model, MA with regime shift, structural break moving averageMA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA
Relacionats55
ResumA Moving Average (MA) time series model augmented to accommodate one or more structural breaks — abrupt shifts in the mean, variance, or MA coefficients occurring at known or unknown break dates. Ignoring structural breaks in an MA process inflates forecast errors and distorts inference on the error dynamics.The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.
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