Compara mètodes

	Foresight Scenario Method	Technology Delphi
Camp	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Família	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Any d'origen	1995	1975
Autor original	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)
Tipus	Structured future-construction process	Iterative structured expert-survey process
Font seminal	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
Àlies	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast
Relacionats	4	4
Resum	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.