Compara mètodes

	Avaluació d'Impact Contrafactual (AIC)	Anàlisi d'Impacte Causal
Camp	Inferència causal	Inferència causal
Família	Regression model	Regression model
Any d'origen	1970s–2000s	2015
Autor original	Heckman, Imbens, Rubin, and the program evaluation literature	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
Tipus	Causal inference / program evaluation	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
Font seminal	Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2007). Econometric evaluation of social programs, Part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of Econometrics, 6B, 4779-4874.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
Àlies	CIE, counterfactual evaluation, counterfactual policy evaluation, impact evaluation	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
Relacionats	5	5
Resum	Counterfactual Impact Evaluation is a family of causal methods that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing what actually happened to participants with what would have happened had the intervention not taken place. Formalised in the Rubin Causal Model and extended by Heckman, Imbens and others, CIE underlies most modern program and policy evaluation practice.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.