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| Bayesian NARDL: Autoregressió Distribuïda No Lineal amb Estimació Bayesiana× | Model vectorial d'error de correcció bayesià (Bayesian VECM)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Camp | Econometria | Econometria |
| Família | Regression model | Regression model |
| Any d'origen≠ | 2014 (NARDL); Bayesian extension c. 2015–2020 | 2002–2005 |
| Autor original≠ | Shin, Yu & Greenwood-Nimmo (NARDL base); Bayesian extension developed in subsequent applied literature | Kleibergen & Paap; Villani |
| Tipus≠ | Nonlinear cointegrating model with Bayesian inference | Bayesian multivariate time series model |
| Font seminal≠ | Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In W. C. Horrace & R. C. Sickles (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281–314). Springer. link ↗ | Kleibergen, F., & Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111(2), 223–249. DOI ↗ |
| Àlies | Bayesian NARDL, Bayesian nonlinear ARDL, Bayesian asymmetric ARDL, B-NARDL | Bayesian VECM, B-VECM, Bayesian cointegrated VAR, Bayesian vector error correction |
| Relacionats≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Resum≠ | Bayesian NARDL combines the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag framework of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) with Bayesian posterior inference. It models asymmetric long-run cointegration — allowing positive and negative shocks to a regressor to have different equilibrium effects — while incorporating prior knowledge and producing full posterior distributions over all parameters, including the asymmetry gap. | The Bayesian VECM combines the classical Vector Error Correction Model — which captures both short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships among non-stationary multivariate time series — with Bayesian prior distributions over the cointegrating rank and coefficient matrices. This allows principled uncertainty quantification, incorporation of economic theory as priors, and coherent inference even in small samples. |
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