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| Оценка на политиките: Прекъснати времеви редове× | Анализ на прекъснати времеви редове (ITS)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област | Причинно-следствено заключение | Причинно-следствено заключение |
| Семейство | Regression model | Regression model |
| Година на възникване≠ | 1975 (intervention analysis); 2000s–2010s (policy evaluation framing) | 2002 |
| Създател≠ | Box & Tiao (1975); popularised for policy by Shadish, Cook & Campbell (2002) and Bernal et al. (2017) | Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial) |
| Тип≠ | Quasi-experimental causal design | Quasi-experimental segmented regression |
| Основополагащ източник | Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355. DOI ↗ | Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355. DOI ↗ |
| Други названия≠ | ITS for policy evaluation, policy ITS, segmented regression for policy, policy impact ITS | ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi |
| Свързани≠ | 4 | 5 |
| Резюме≠ | Interrupted Time Series (ITS) for policy evaluation uses routinely collected aggregate time-series data to estimate the causal impact of a policy change. A segmented regression model splits the series at a known intervention date, estimating both an immediate level shift and a change in trend attributable to the policy — without requiring a randomised control group. | Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope. |
| ScholarGateНабор от данни ↗ |
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