Сравнение на методи

	ETS: Грешка, Тренд, Сезонно експоненциално изглаждане	Тройно експоненциално изглаждане по Холт-Уинтърс	SARIMAX
Област	Иконометрия	Иконометрия	Иконометрия
Семейство	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Година на възникване	2008	1960	2015
Създател	Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)	Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters	Box & Jenkins (ARIMA framework); SARIMAX extension with exogenous regressors
Тип	Exponential smoothing state space model	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	Seasonal time-series regression model
Основополагащ източник	Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer.	Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342.	Hyndman, R. J. & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice (3rd ed.). OTexts.
Други названия	exponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme	triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme	seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables, SARIMA with regressors, ARIMAX, SARIMAX — Dışsal Değişkenli Mevsimsel ARIMA
Свързани	5	4	4
Резюме	ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.	Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.	SARIMAX extends the seasonal ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model by adding exogenous explanatory variables, so it can capture the effect of holidays, economic indicators, or policy variables on a time series. It combines non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average dynamics with external regressors, and is estimated by maximum likelihood in state-space form.