Сравнение на методи
Прегледайте избраните методи един до друг; редовете с разлики са откроени.
| Модел ARIMA (Авторегресионен интегриран плъзгащ се среден)× | Модел EGARCH (Експоненциален GARCH)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област | Иконометрия | Иконометрия |
| Семейство | Regression model | Regression model |
| Година на възникване≠ | 1970 | 1991 |
| Създател≠ | George Box and Gwilym Jenkins | Daniel B. Nelson |
| Тип≠ | Time series forecasting model | Volatility / conditional variance model |
| Основополагащ източник≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗ | Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370. DOI ↗ |
| Други названия | ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q) | Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH |
| Свързани | 6 | 6 |
| Резюме≠ | The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics. | The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets. |
| ScholarGateНабор от данни ↗ |
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