قارن الطرق

	اختبار جرانجر للسببية لتودا-ياماموتو	اختبار سببية غرانجر (Granger Causality Test)	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي المتجهي (VAR)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Hypothesis test	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1995	1969	2005
صاحب الطريقة	Hiro Toda & Taku Yamamoto	Clive W. J. Granger	Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
النوع	Modified Wald test on augmented VAR	Time-series predictive causality test	Multivariate time-series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1–2), 225–250.	Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.	Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer.
الأسماء البديلة	TY Causality Test, Modified Wald Granger Causality, MWALD Test, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi	Granger causality test, Granger non-causality test, predictive causality test, Granger Nedensellik Testi	vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
ذات صلة	3	5	4
الملخص	The Toda-Yamamoto (TY) causality test, introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), provides a robust procedure for testing Granger non-causality in vector autoregressive (VAR) models when the variables may be integrated or cointegrated of arbitrary order. By intentionally over-fitting the VAR with extra lags equal to the maximum integration order, the method bypasses the need for pre-testing cointegration and preserves the standard asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the Wald statistic.	The Granger causality test, introduced by Clive W. J. Granger in 1969, assesses whether the past values of one time series help predict another beyond what the latter's own past already explains. It defines causality in a strictly predictive sense rather than as a structural or physical cause.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).