قارن الطرق

	نموذج المتوسط المتحرك (MA) ذو الانقطاع الهيكلي	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (AR) ذو التغير الهيكلي
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1989–1992	1989-2003
صاحب الطريقة	Perron (1989); Zivot & Andrews (1992)	Perron (1989); Bai & Perron (1998, 2003)
النوع	Time series model with structural change	Time-series model with structural change
المصدر التأسيسي	Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401.	Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
الأسماء البديلة	MA model with structural change, broken MA model, MA with regime shift, structural break moving average	AR model with structural change, breakpoint AR model, piecewise autoregressive model, AR model with regime shifts
ذات صلة	5	6
الملخص	A Moving Average (MA) time series model augmented to accommodate one or more structural breaks — abrupt shifts in the mean, variance, or MA coefficients occurring at known or unknown break dates. Ignoring structural breaks in an MA process inflates forecast errors and distorts inference on the error dynamics.	The structural break AR model extends the standard autoregressive framework by allowing the intercept and autoregressive coefficients to shift at one or more unknown break dates. Each regime between consecutive break points is governed by its own AR parameters, capturing abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series caused by crises, policy shifts, or other shocks.