قارن الطرق

	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (AR) ذو التغير الهيكلي	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (AR)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1989-2003	1970s (popularised 1976)
صاحب الطريقة	Perron (1989); Bai & Perron (1998, 2003)	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
النوع	Time-series model with structural change	Time series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
الأسماء البديلة	AR model with structural change, breakpoint AR model, piecewise autoregressive model, AR model with regime shifts	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
ذات صلة	6	6
الملخص	The structural break AR model extends the standard autoregressive framework by allowing the intercept and autoregressive coefficients to shift at one or more unknown break dates. Each regime between consecutive break points is governed by its own AR parameters, capturing abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series caused by crises, policy shifts, or other shocks.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.