قارن الطرق

	تحليل STL: تحليل الاتجاه والموسمية باستخدام الانحدار الموزون محليًا (Loess)	نموذج ARIMA (الانحدار الذاتي المتكامل للمتوسط المتحرك)	التعديل الموسمي باستخدام X-13ARIMA-SEATS
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Regression model	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1990	2015	1998
صاحب الطريقة	Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae & Terpenning	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	U.S. Census Bureau; Findley et al.
النوع	nonparametric iterative smoother	Univariate time-series model	Non-parametric / model-based hybrid
المصدر التأسيسي	Cleveland, R. B., Cleveland, W. S., McRae, J. E., & Terpenning, I. (1990). STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. Journal of Official Statistics, 6(1), 3–73.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Findley, D. F., Monsell, B. C., Bell, W. R., Otto, M. C., & Chen, B.-C. (1998). New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(2), 127–152.
الأسماء البديلة	Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess, STL filtering, Loess-based seasonal decomposition, Mevsimsel-Trend Ayrıştırma (STL)	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	X-13ARIMA-SEATS, X-12-ARIMA, Census X-13, Mevsimsel Düzeltme X-13
ذات صلة	3	5	3
الملخص	STL Decomposition, introduced by Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae, and Terpenning (1990), is a nonparametric procedure that separates a time series into three additive components — trend, seasonal, and remainder — using iterative locally weighted regression (loess). Widely used in economics, meteorology, and data science, it handles time series of any periodicity and is robust to the presence of outliers, making it a highly flexible alternative to classical decomposition methods.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	X-13ARIMA-SEATS is the standard seasonal adjustment program produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, combining RegARIMA pre-adjustment with either the classical X-11 filter or the model-based SEATS signal-extraction algorithm. It is the official tool used by national statistical agencies worldwide — including Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — to remove recurring calendar and seasonal patterns from monthly or quarterly economic time series such as GDP, employment, and retail sales.