قارن الطرق

	نموذج SARIMA	نموذج ARIMA (الانحدار الذاتي المتكامل المتوسط المتحرك)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)	1970
صاحب الطريقة	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
النوع	Seasonal time series model	Time series forecasting model
المصدر التأسيسي	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
الأسماء البديلة	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
ذات صلة	5	6
الملخص	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.