قارن الطرق

	نموذج ARIMA الموسمي (SARIMA)	تحليل STL: تحليل الاتجاه والموسمية باستخدام الانحدار الموزون محليًا (Loess)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	2015	1990
صاحب الطريقة	Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA)	Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae & Terpenning
النوع	Seasonal time-series model	nonparametric iterative smoother
المصدر التأسيسي	Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Cleveland, R. B., Cleveland, W. S., McRae, J. E., & Terpenning, I. (1990). STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. Journal of Official Statistics, 6(1), 3–73.
الأسماء البديلة	seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA	Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess, STL filtering, Loess-based seasonal decomposition, Mevsimsel-Trend Ayrıştırma (STL)
ذات صلة	5	3
الملخص	SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period.	STL Decomposition, introduced by Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae, and Terpenning (1990), is a nonparametric procedure that separates a time series into three additive components — trend, seasonal, and remainder — using iterative locally weighted regression (loess). Widely used in economics, meteorology, and data science, it handles time series of any periodicity and is robust to the presence of outliers, making it a highly flexible alternative to classical decomposition methods.