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نموذج تصحيح الخطأ المتجه غير الخطي (Nonlinear VECM)×اختبار حدود ARDL (اختبار حدود بيسران)×اختبار جوهانسون للتكامل المشترك ونموذج تصحيح الخطأ المتجهي×
المجالالاقتصاد القياسيالاقتصاد القياسيالتمويل
العائلةRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
سنة النشأة1989–199820011991
صاحب الطريقةGranger & Lee (1989); Enders & Granger (1998)Pesaran, Shin & SmithSøren Johansen
النوعNonlinear time-series modelCointegration test / Autoregressive distributed lag modelMultivariate cointegration / vector error correction model
المصدر التأسيسيEnders, W., & Granger, C. W. J. (1998). Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(3), 304–311. DOI ↗Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. DOI ↗Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. DOI ↗
الأسماء البديلةnonlinear VECM, NVECM, threshold VECM, asymmetric VECMPesaran bounds test, bounds testing approach, ARDL cointegration test, ARDL Sınır Testi (Pesaran Bounds Test)Johansen test, VECM, vector error correction model, multivariate cointegration
ذات صلة243
الملخصThe Nonlinear VECM extends the standard linear VECM by allowing the speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium to differ depending on the sign, magnitude, or regime of deviations from that equilibrium. It captures asymmetric or threshold-driven dynamics in cointegrated time-series systems that a standard VECM would miss.The ARDL bounds test is an autoregressive distributed lag method that tests for a cointegrating (long-run level) relationship between time series, introduced by Pesaran, Shin and Smith in 2001. Unlike the Johansen procedure, it remains valid whether the variables are I(0), I(1) or a mix of the two, and it is more reliable than Johansen in small samples of roughly 30 to 80 observations.The Johansen procedure is a multivariate cointegration framework, introduced by Søren Johansen in 1991, that tests for long-run equilibrium relationships among several I(1) time series. It determines how many cointegrating vectors link the series and then builds a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to describe the short-run dynamics around that equilibrium.
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ScholarGateقارن الطرق: Nonlinear VECM · ARDL Bounds Test · Johansen Cointegration Test. استُرجع بتاريخ 2026-06-18 من https://scholargate.app/ar/compare