قارن الطرق

	نموذج المتوسط المتحرك (MA)	نموذج ARMA (متوسط متحرك ذاتي الانحدار)	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (AR)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1970	1970	1970s (popularised 1976)
صاحب الطريقة	Box and Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
النوع	Linear time series model	Time series model	Time series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043
الأسماء البديلة	MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process
ذات صلة	5	5	6
الملخص	The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.