قارن الطرق

	تحليل تباين خطأ التنبؤ (FEVD)	الانحدار الذاتي البنيوي للمتجهات (SVAR)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2005	1980
صاحب الطريقة	Helmut Lütkepohl	Christopher Sims
النوع	Multivariate time series analysis tool	Structural multivariate time-series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. ISBN: 978-3-540-40172-8	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.
الأسماء البديلة	Variance Decomposition, Error Variance Decomposition, VD Analysis, Varyans Ayrıştırması	Structural VAR, Identified VAR, SVAR Model, Yapısal Vektör Otoregresyon
ذات صلة	3	2
الملخص	Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) is a multivariate time series technique used within Vector Autoregression (VAR) frameworks to quantify what proportion of the forecast error variance of each variable is attributable to shocks from every other variable in the system. It is widely used by econometricians, macroeconomists, and financial researchers to assess the relative importance of different structural disturbances in driving short-run and long-run fluctuations across interconnected economic series.	Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) is a multivariate time-series model, developed by Christopher Sims (1980), that extends the reduced-form VAR by imposing economically motivated identifying restrictions on contemporaneous relationships among variables. SVAR enables researchers to isolate orthogonal structural shocks and trace their causal dynamic effects through impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions, making it a cornerstone of modern empirical macroeconomics.