قارن الطرق

	القيمة المعرضة للخطر المشروطة (النقص المتوقع)	نموذج ARIMA (الانحدار الذاتي المتكامل للمتوسط المتحرك)
المجال	التمويل	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2000	2015
صاحب الطريقة	Rockafellar & Uryasev (2000); Acerbi & Tasche (2002)	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)
النوع	Coherent tail-risk measure	Univariate time-series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Rockafellar, R. T. & Uryasev, S. (2000). Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Journal of Risk, 2(3), 21-41.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
الأسماء البديلة	CVaR, expected shortfall, average value-at-risk, tail VaR	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli
ذات صلة	5	5
الملخص	Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), also called Expected Shortfall, is a coherent tail-risk measure that quantifies the conditional expectation of losses beyond the Value-at-Risk threshold. It was introduced for optimization by Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000) and shown to be coherent by Acerbi and Tasche (2002), and it has replaced VaR as the regulatory standard under Basel III/IV.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).