قارن الطرق

	نموذج بايزي للتقلب الشرطي الذاتي الانحداري	نموذج بايز EGARCH
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1982 (ARCH); 1989 (Bayesian estimation)	1991 (EGARCH); 2000s (Bayesian estimation)
صاحب الطريقة	Robert F. Engle (ARCH, 1982); Bayesian treatment: John Geweke (1989)	Nelson (1991) for EGARCH; Bayesian inference via MCMC developed from early 2000s
النوع	Volatility model with Bayesian inference	Volatility model with Bayesian inference
المصدر التأسيسي	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian ARCH, ARCH with Bayesian estimation, Bayesian conditional heteroskedasticity model, B-ARCH	Bayesian EGARCH model, Bayesian Exponential GARCH, EGARCH with Bayesian estimation, B-EGARCH
ذات صلة	6	6
الملخص	The Bayesian ARCH model estimates Engle's Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification within a Bayesian framework. Instead of maximising a likelihood, it combines a prior distribution over the volatility parameters with the data likelihood to obtain a full posterior distribution, providing richer uncertainty quantification than classical maximum-likelihood ARCH.	The Bayesian EGARCH model combines Nelson's (1991) Exponential GARCH specification — which models the log of conditional variance and captures the leverage effect — with Bayesian posterior inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows full uncertainty quantification of all volatility parameters, including the asymmetry coefficient, without requiring large-sample normality of the estimates.