قارن الطرق

	نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (AR)	نموذج ARMA (متوسط متحرك ذاتي الانحدار)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1970s (popularised 1976)	1970
صاحب الطريقة	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins	George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
النوع	Time series model	Time series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
الأسماء البديلة	AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process	ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q)
ذات صلة	6	5
الملخص	An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series.	The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting.