قارن الطرق

	نموذج ARIMA (الانحدار الذاتي المتكامل للمتوسط المتحرك)	الاستدلال بالتمهيد	اختبار ديبولد-ماريانو لدقة التنبؤ المتساوية
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الإحصاء	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model	Hypothesis test
سنة النشأة	2015	1979	1995
صاحب الطريقة	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Bradley Efron	Francis Diebold & Roberto Mariano
النوع	Univariate time-series model	Resampling-based inference	Non-parametric forecast comparison test
المصدر التأسيسي	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1-26.	Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(3), 253–263.
الأسماء البديلة	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	bootstrap, bootstrap resampling, nonparametric bootstrap, Bootstrap Çıkarımı	DM Test, Test of Equal Forecast Accuracy, Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test, Tahmin Doğruluğu Eşitliği Testi
ذات صلة	5	5	3
الملخص	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Bootstrap inference, introduced by Bradley Efron in 1979, estimates the sampling distribution of a statistic by repeatedly resampling the observed data with replacement. It requires no distributional assumption and produces reliable confidence intervals even in small samples.	The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test, introduced by Diebold and Mariano in 1995, is a widely used non-parametric procedure for formally comparing the predictive accuracy of two competing forecasting models. It evaluates whether the difference in forecast errors between two models is statistically significant, without requiring nested models or specific distributional assumptions about the forecasts, making it broadly applicable across economics, finance, and time-series analysis.