Process / pipelineSimulation / optimization
贝叶斯系统动力学 — SD模型中概率参数估计与不确定性传播
贝叶斯系统动力学（BSD）将贝叶斯统计推断与因果存量-流量模拟模型相结合。关于模型参数的先验知识使用观测到的时间序列数据进行更新，以产生后验分布，然后将这些后验分布通过模拟传播，从而产生概率预测和策略评估，而非单一确定性轨迹。
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Method map
The neighbourhood of related methods — select a node to explore.
来源
- Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. D. (2008). Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Management Science, 54(5), 998–1014. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0787 ↗
- System dynamics. Wikipedia. link ↗
如何引用本页
ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian System Dynamics — Probabilistic parameter estimation and uncertainty propagation in system dynamics models. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/zh/simulation/bayesian-system-dynamics
Which method?
Set this method beside its closest kin and read them side by side — the library lays the books on the table; the choice is yours.
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- 蒙特卡洛模拟决策↔ compare
- 随机系统动力学仿真↔ compare
- 系统动力学仿真↔ compare