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不确定性量化×蒙特卡洛模拟×
领域仿真决策
方法族Process / pipelineMCDM
起源年份Seminal modern form: 20021949
提出者Norbert Wiener (polynomial chaos, 1938); extended to Wiener–Askey scheme by Xiu & Karniadakis (2002)Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
类型Computational uncertainty analysis frameworkRobustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
开创性文献Xiu, D. & Karniadakis, G.E. (2002). The Wiener-Askey Polynomial Chaos for Stochastic Differential Equations. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(2), 619–644. DOI ↗Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗
别名UQ, polynomial chaos expansion, PCE, Kriging surrogate
相关90
摘要Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a computational framework for systematically measuring how uncertainty in the inputs of a model propagates into uncertainty in its outputs. Building on Wiener's polynomial chaos theory (1938) and formalised for general stochastic problems by Xiu and Karniadakis (2002), UQ uses two primary strategies: Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), which represents the model output as a series of orthogonal polynomials matched to the input distributions, and Kriging (Gaussian process) surrogates, which replace an expensive simulation with a fast statistical approximation fitted to a small set of carefully chosen runs.MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Uncertainty Quantification · MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare