方法对比

	Transition Management	Technology Foresight
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2001	1995
提出者	Jan Rotmans, René Kemp & Derk Loorbach	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes
类型	Prescriptive, complexity-based governance framework	Participatory future-oriented strategic process
开创性文献	Loorbach, D. (2010). Transition management for sustainable development: a prescriptive, complexity-based governance framework. Governance, 23(1), 161-183.	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
别名	TM, Transition governance framework, Transition arena approach	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Transition Management (TM) is a prescriptive, complexity-based governance framework for deliberately steering long-term, structural change in sociotechnical systems toward sustainability. Rather than predicting or controlling outcomes, it organises a cyclical, participatory process—strategic, tactical, operational, and reflexive activities—through which a small group of frontrunners develops shared long-term visions, translates them into agendas and coalitions, mobilises experiments, and continuously monitors and learns. It applies insights from transitions research to the question of how societies might govern their own transformations.	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.