方法对比

	Tourism Multiplier Analysis	Tourism CGE Modeling
领域	Tourism Economics	Tourism Economics
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1982	2004
提出者	Brian H. Archer; John E. Fletcher	Larry Dwyer, Peter Forsyth & Ray Spurr (tourism application)
类型	Economic-impact multiplier model for tourism expenditure	Economy-wide general-equilibrium simulation model for tourism shocks
开创性文献	Archer, B. H. (1982). The value of multipliers and their policy implications. Tourism Management, 3(4), 236-241.	Dwyer, L., Forsyth, P., & Spurr, R. (2004). Evaluating tourism's economic effects: new and old approaches. Tourism Management, 25(3), 307-317.
别名	Tourism Income Multiplier, Keynesian Tourism Multiplier, Tourism Economic Multiplier, Ad Hoc Tourism Multiplier	Tourism Computable General Equilibrium, CGE Tourism Impact Model, General Equilibrium Tourism Analysis, Tourism Economy-Wide Modeling
相关	3	3
摘要	Tourism multiplier analysis quantifies how much total economic activity a destination gains from each unit of tourist spending, once that spending circulates through the local economy. When a visitor pays for a hotel room, the money does not stop there: the hotel pays wages, buys food and laundry services, and its suppliers in turn pay their own staff and suppliers, while households re-spend the incomes they earn. Each round generates further income, output, and jobs, though some money leaks out at every stage through imports, savings, and taxes. The multiplier is the ratio of this total effect to the original injection. Brian Archer's work, especially his 1982 assessment of the value of multipliers, clarified what these figures mean and how they are misused, while John Fletcher's 1989 input-output treatment gave the technique its rigorous modern foundation and its standard typology of income, output, and employment multipliers.	Tourism computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling simulates how a change in tourism — a surge in inbound visitors, a major event, a new tax, or a demand collapse — ripples through an entire economy when prices, wages, exchange rates, and resources are free to adjust. Unlike input-output analysis, which assumes fixed prices and unlimited supply, a CGE model represents producers, households, government, and the rest of the world as optimising agents linked through markets that must clear. A tourism shock therefore bids up the prices of the resources tourism uses, draws labour and capital away from other sectors, and shifts the exchange rate, so the net economy-wide effect can differ sharply from a naive multiplier. Dwyer, Forsyth and Spurr's 2004 comparison made the influential case that CGE is the preferred technique for evaluating tourism's economic effects when these adjustments matter.