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时变参数Toda-Yamamoto因果关系×格兰杰因果检验×
领域计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份1995 (base); TVP variant emerged early 2000s–2010s1969
提出者Toda & Yamamoto (1995); TVP extension by subsequent applied econometriciansClive W. J. Granger
类型Causality test (time-varying)Time-series predictive causality test
开创性文献Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. DOI ↗Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. DOI ↗
别名TVP-TY causality, time-varying Toda-Yamamoto, TVP Granger causality (Toda-Yamamoto), rolling/recursive Toda-Yamamoto causalityGranger causality test, Granger non-causality test, predictive causality test, Granger Nedensellik Testi
相关35
摘要The TVP Toda-Yamamoto causality test combines Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) augmented VAR approach — which handles possibly integrated or cointegrated series without pre-testing for unit roots — with time-varying parameters, allowing causal relationships between variables to shift across different periods rather than remaining fixed throughout the sample.The Granger causality test, introduced by Clive W. J. Granger in 1969, assesses whether the past values of one time series help predict another beyond what the latter's own past already explains. It defines causality in a strictly predictive sense rather than as a structural or physical cause.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Time-varying parameter Toda-Yamamoto causality · Granger Causality. 于 2026-06-19 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare