方法对比

	时间序列变分推断	时间序列 MCMC
领域	贝叶斯	贝叶斯
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
起源年份	1999–2017	1994–1997
提出者	Jordan, Ghahramani, Jaakkola, Saul; extended by Blei and colleagues	Carter & Kohn; West & Harrison
类型	Approximate Bayesian inference	Bayesian posterior sampling for time-ordered data
开创性文献	Blei, D. M., Kucukelbir, A. & McAuliffe, J. D. (2017). Variational inference: A review for statisticians. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 112(518), 859-877.	Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika, 81(3), 541–553.
别名	time-series VI, variational Bayes for time series, TSVI, sequential variational inference	MCMC time series, Bayesian time series MCMC, time series posterior sampling, sequential Bayesian MCMC
相关	6	6
摘要	Time series variational inference applies variational Bayes to sequential data, approximating the intractable posterior over latent states and parameters with a tractable family of distributions. By maximising the evidence lower bound (ELBO), it delivers fast, scalable Bayesian inference for state-space models, dynamic latent variable models, and other time-ordered probabilistic systems.	Time series MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to Bayesian inference over time-ordered data. Rather than optimising a single parameter estimate, it draws samples from the full joint posterior of parameters and latent states, yielding probability distributions that honestly reflect uncertainty about dynamics, trends, and seasonal patterns across every time point.