方法对比

	时间序列 MCMC	粒子滤波器（序贯蒙特卡洛）
领域	贝叶斯	贝叶斯
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
起源年份	1994–1997	1993
提出者	Carter & Kohn; West & Harrison	Gordon, Salmond & Smith
类型	Bayesian posterior sampling for time-ordered data	Sequential Monte Carlo estimator
开创性文献	Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika, 81(3), 541–553.	Gordon, N. J., Salmond, D. J., & Smith, A. F. M. (1993). Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. IEE Proceedings F (Radar and Signal Processing), 140(2), 107–113.
别名	MCMC time series, Bayesian time series MCMC, time series posterior sampling, sequential Bayesian MCMC	SMC, sequential Monte Carlo, bootstrap filter, condensation algorithm
相关	6	4
摘要	Time series MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to Bayesian inference over time-ordered data. Rather than optimising a single parameter estimate, it draws samples from the full joint posterior of parameters and latent states, yielding probability distributions that honestly reflect uncertainty about dynamics, trends, and seasonal patterns across every time point.	The particle filter, introduced by Gordon, Salmond, and Smith in 1993, is a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that approximates the Bayesian filtering distribution for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Rather than tracking a single best estimate, it maintains a cloud of N weighted random samples — particles — that collectively represent the full posterior distribution of a hidden state at each point in time as new observations arrive.