方法对比

	时间序列近似贝叶斯计算	动态贝叶斯推断
领域	贝叶斯	贝叶斯
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
起源年份	2009	1989–1997
提出者	Beaumont, Zhang & Balding (2002) for ABC; Toni et al. (2009) for dynamical/time-series extension	West & Harrison (dynamic linear models); Dean & Kanazawa (dynamic Bayesian networks)
类型	likelihood-free Bayesian inference	Bayesian sequential / online inference framework
开创性文献	Toni, T., Welch, D., Strelkowa, N., Ipsen, A. & Stumpf, M. P. H. (2009). Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 6(31), 187–202.	West, M. & Harrison, J. (1997). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387947259
别名	TS-ABC, time series ABC, likelihood-free inference for time series, ABC for dynamical systems	online Bayesian inference, sequential Bayesian updating, recursive Bayesian estimation, dynamic Bayesian updating
相关	6	6
摘要	Time series ABC is a likelihood-free Bayesian inference method that estimates the posterior distribution of model parameters for dynamical or time-indexed systems by comparing summary statistics of simulated trajectories to those of the observed series, bypassing the need to evaluate an analytic likelihood. It is particularly valuable for complex mechanistic or stochastic models whose likelihoods are intractable.	Dynamic Bayesian inference is a framework for performing Bayesian updating sequentially as new observations arrive over time. Rather than fitting a static model to a fixed dataset, it tracks how a posterior distribution over latent states or parameters evolves step by step, combining a prior with each new likelihood to produce an updated posterior that propagates forward through time.