方法对比

	Theory-Based Impact Evaluation	Randomized Evaluation in Development
领域	Development Studies	Development Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2009	2003
提出者	Carol Weiss; Howard White (3ie)	Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, Michael Kremer; J-PAL / IPA
类型	Evaluation approach / framework	Experimental impact evaluation design
开创性文献	White, H. (2009). Theory-Based Impact Evaluation: Principles and Practice. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 1(3), 271–284.	Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2009). The Experimental Approach to Development Economics. Annual Review of Economics, 1, 151–178.
别名	Theory of Change Evaluation, Contribution Analysis, Theory-Driven Evaluation, Causal-Chain Impact Evaluation	Randomized Controlled Trials, Field Experiments in Development, RCTs in Development Economics, Randomized Field Trials
相关	4	4
摘要	Theory-based impact evaluation evaluates a programme by first making explicit the theory of change — the causal chain of assumptions and mechanisms through which inputs are expected to produce outcomes and impacts — and then gathering evidence to test whether each link in that chain holds. Rather than treating the programme as a black box and estimating only the net effect, it asks not just whether a programme worked but why, for whom, and under what conditions. Articulated by Carol Weiss and brought into development practice by Howard White and 3ie, it complements, rather than competes with, counterfactual designs.	Randomized evaluation applies the logic of the controlled experiment to development policy: an intervention — a school grant, a deworming pill, an insurance product — is assigned at random to some units and withheld from others, so that any subsequent difference in outcomes can be attributed causally to the intervention rather than to confounding. Championed from the early 2000s by the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) and Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), the approach earned its leading proponents — Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, and Michael Kremer — the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for transforming how anti-poverty programmes are tested.