方法对比

	Strategic Technology Roadmapping	Strategic Scenario Planning
领域	战略管理	战略管理
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2004	1995
提出者	Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh & David Probert	Pierre Wack; Paul Schoemaker; Kees van der Heijden
类型	Time-based strategic planning and visualization framework	Structured foresight process for strategy under deep uncertainty
开创性文献	Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping - A planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Technology-Product-Market Roadmapping, T-Plan Roadmapping, Strategic Roadmapping, Innovation Roadmapping	Intuitive-Logics Scenario Method, Scenario-Based Strategic Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios, Shell-Style Scenario Planning
相关	4	4
摘要	Strategic technology roadmapping is a planning and visualization method that links what an organization should develop, when, and why by aligning three time-based layers - market drivers, products, and technologies - on a single chart. Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, and David Probert of the University of Cambridge synthesized the approach in their influential 2004 Technological Forecasting and Social Change paper, presenting roadmapping as a flexible framework that supports both incremental ('evolution') and disruptive ('revolution') strategic change. A roadmap answers, layer by layer, why the organization needs to act (market and business drivers), what products or capabilities will respond, and how technologies and resources will deliver them, all positioned against time. By making these connections explicit, roadmapping coordinates strategy, innovation, and resource allocation across functions and exposes the timing gaps and dependencies that threaten a technology strategy.	Strategic scenario planning is a structured foresight method that helps organizations make decisions under deep uncertainty by constructing a small set of internally consistent, sharply divergent stories about how the future could unfold. The dominant 'intuitive-logics' tradition was pioneered at Royal Dutch/Shell by Pierre Wack, whose 1985 Harvard Business Review account showed how scenarios prepared Shell's managers for the 1973 oil shock by changing how they perceived their world rather than by predicting it. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 Sloan Management Review article codified the approach into a repeatable step-by-step process for managers, and Kees van der Heijden's 1996 book reframed scenarios as the centerpiece of an ongoing 'strategic conversation' through which an organization builds shared understanding and adaptive capacity. The aim is not to forecast a single future but to make strategy robust across several plausible ones.