方法对比

	Strategic Technology Roadmapping	Disruptive Innovation Analysis
领域	战略管理	战略管理
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2004	1997
提出者	Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh & David Probert	Clayton Christensen; Clayton Christensen, Michael Raynor & Rory McDonald
类型	Time-based strategic planning and visualization framework	Theory-based framework for classifying and assessing innovation trajectories
开创性文献	Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P., & Probert, D. R. (2004). Technology roadmapping - A planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(1-2), 5-26.	Christensen, C. M. (1997). The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Harvard Business School Press. ISBN: 9780875845852
别名	Technology-Product-Market Roadmapping, T-Plan Roadmapping, Strategic Roadmapping, Innovation Roadmapping	Disruptive Innovation Theory, Sustaining vs Disruptive Analysis, Christensen Disruption Analysis, Innovator's Dilemma Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Strategic technology roadmapping is a planning and visualization method that links what an organization should develop, when, and why by aligning three time-based layers - market drivers, products, and technologies - on a single chart. Robert Phaal, Clare Farrukh, and David Probert of the University of Cambridge synthesized the approach in their influential 2004 Technological Forecasting and Social Change paper, presenting roadmapping as a flexible framework that supports both incremental ('evolution') and disruptive ('revolution') strategic change. A roadmap answers, layer by layer, why the organization needs to act (market and business drivers), what products or capabilities will respond, and how technologies and resources will deliver them, all positioned against time. By making these connections explicit, roadmapping coordinates strategy, innovation, and resource allocation across functions and exposes the timing gaps and dependencies that threaten a technology strategy.	Disruptive innovation analysis is a framework for classifying innovations and anticipating when a new entrant will overturn established market leaders. Clayton Christensen introduced the theory in his 1997 book The Innovator's Dilemma, which explained the paradox that well-managed incumbent firms can fail precisely because they listen to their best customers and invest in sustaining improvements, leaving them exposed to simpler, cheaper offerings that begin at the low end or in new markets and then improve until they capture the mainstream. The 2015 Harvard Business Review article by Christensen, Michael Raynor, and Rory McDonald clarified the concept after two decades of misuse, insisting that 'disruption' is a precise process - not a synonym for any breakthrough or any successful startup - in which an entrant gains a foothold in segments incumbents overlook and moves upmarket from there. The analysis compares performance trajectories against customer needs to tell sustaining from disruptive change.