方法对比

	Technology Foresight	Horizon Scanning
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	2009
提出者	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community
类型	Participatory future-oriented strategic process	Systematic search-and-detection process
开创性文献	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.
别名	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.