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TAR / SETAR:用于机制转换时间序列的门限自回归模型×光滑转换自回归 (STAR) 模型×
领域计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份19901994
提出者Howell TongTeräsvirta (1994); van Dijk, Teräsvirta & Franses (2002)
类型Nonlinear time-series model with regime switchingNonlinear time-series regime-switching model
开创性文献Tong, H. (1990). Non-linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0-19-852300-6Teräsvirta, T. (1994). Specification, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(425), 208–218. DOI ↗
别名Threshold Autoregression, Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregression, SETAR Model, Eşik Otoregresyonsmooth transition autoregressive model, LSTAR, ESTAR, logistic STAR
相关24
摘要TAR and SETAR are nonlinear autoregressive models introduced by Howell Tong (1990) that allow a time series to follow different linear dynamics in distinct regimes, separated by one or more threshold values. SETAR is the self-exciting variant, in which the threshold variable is a lagged value of the series itself, making it particularly suited to cycles, asymmetric adjustment, and limit-cycle behavior observed in economic and financial data.The Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model is a nonlinear time-series model, developed in Teräsvirta's 1994 framework, that lets the dynamics move smoothly rather than abruptly between two regimes. The logistic variant (LSTAR) captures asymmetric business cycles and the exponential variant (ESTAR) captures purchasing-power-parity deviations.
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ScholarGate方法对比: TAR / SETAR · STAR Model. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare