方法对比

	System Dynamics Business Strategy Modeling	Strategic Scenario Planning
领域	战略管理	战略管理
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1961	1995
提出者	Jay W. Forrester; John D. Sterman	Pierre Wack; Paul Schoemaker; Kees van der Heijden
类型	Feedback-loop (stock-and-flow) simulation of business strategy	Structured foresight process for strategy under deep uncertainty
开创性文献	Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. ISBN: 9780262060035	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Business Strategy System Dynamics, Feedback-Loop Strategy Simulation, Stock-and-Flow Business Modeling, Strategy Dynamics Simulation	Intuitive-Logics Scenario Method, Scenario-Based Strategic Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios, Shell-Style Scenario Planning
相关	3	4
摘要	System dynamics business strategy modeling represents a firm's strategy as a system of stocks, flows, and feedback loops with delays, then simulates the resulting nonlinear behavior to understand why strategies succeed, fail, or backfire over time. Jay Forrester's 1961 Industrial Dynamics founded the field, showing that the feedback structure of a business — orders, inventories, capacity, and the information links that govern them — generates dynamics like amplification and oscillation that no single decision creates. John Sterman's 2000 Business Dynamics turned this into a comprehensive modeling discipline for managers, complete with a structured process for building, testing, and using simulation models. The method gives strategists a way to see how policies ripple through reinforcing and balancing loops, often producing counterintuitive long-run consequences.	Strategic scenario planning is a structured foresight method that helps organizations make decisions under deep uncertainty by constructing a small set of internally consistent, sharply divergent stories about how the future could unfold. The dominant 'intuitive-logics' tradition was pioneered at Royal Dutch/Shell by Pierre Wack, whose 1985 Harvard Business Review account showed how scenarios prepared Shell's managers for the 1973 oil shock by changing how they perceived their world rather than by predicting it. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 Sloan Management Review article codified the approach into a repeatable step-by-step process for managers, and Kees van der Heijden's 1996 book reframed scenarios as the centerpiece of an ongoing 'strategic conversation' through which an organization builds shared understanding and adaptive capacity. The aim is not to forecast a single future but to make strategy robust across several plausible ones.