方法对比
并排查看您选择的方法；存在差异的行会高亮显示。
| 系统动力学× | 拉丁超立方体采样× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 仿真 | 仿真 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | 1961 | 1979 | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Jay W. Forrester | — | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling | Stratified space-filling sampling design | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 | McKay, M.D., Beckman, R.J. & Conover, W.J. (1979). A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code. Technometrics, 21(2), 239-245. DOI ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation | LHS, Latin Hiperküp Örnekleme (LHS) ve Duyarlılık Analizi, stratified sampling design, space-filling design | — |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. | Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is a stratified space-filling design for computer experiments, introduced by McKay, Beckman, and Conover in 1979. It divides each input variable's range into equally probable strata and draws exactly one sample per stratum, ensuring that the full input space is covered with far fewer model evaluations than standard Monte Carlo simulation requires. It is routinely paired with global sensitivity analysis — particularly Sobol indices — to quantify how much each input drives output variability. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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