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| Sullivan Method× | 李-卡特模型× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 人口学 | 人口学 |
| 方法族≠ | Survival analysis | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1971 | 1992 |
| 提出者≠ | Daniel F. Sullivan | Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter |
| 类型≠ | Prevalence-based health expectancy estimator | Stochastic mortality forecasting model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86(4), 347–354. link ↗ | Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Sullivan's Index, Sullivan Health Expectancy Method, Prevalence-Based Health Expectancy, Sullivan Yöntemi | LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 2 |
| 摘要≠ | The Sullivan method is a simple, widely used technique for estimating health expectancy — the average number of years a person can expect to live in a given health state, such as free of disability. Introduced by Daniel Sullivan in 1971, it combines an ordinary period life table with the observed age-specific prevalence of the health state, partitioning life-table person-years into healthy and unhealthy years without requiring any longitudinal transition data. | The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections. |
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