方法对比

	Sullivan Method	Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Survival analysis	Regression model
起源年份	1971	1860
提出者	Daniel F. Sullivan	Benjamin Gompertz & William Makeham
类型	Prevalence-based health expectancy estimator	Parametric mortality (hazard) law for adult ages
开创性文献	Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86(4), 347–354.	Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115, 513–583.
别名	Sullivan's Index, Sullivan Health Expectancy Method, Prevalence-Based Health Expectancy, Sullivan Yöntemi	Gompertz-Makeham Model, Makeham's Law, Gompertz Law of Mortality, Gompertz-Makeham Ölümlülük Yasası
相关	4	4
摘要	The Sullivan method is a simple, widely used technique for estimating health expectancy — the average number of years a person can expect to live in a given health state, such as free of disability. Introduced by Daniel Sullivan in 1971, it combines an ordinary period life table with the observed age-specific prevalence of the health state, partitioning life-table person-years into healthy and unhealthy years without requiring any longitudinal transition data.	The Gompertz-Makeham law is the foundational parametric model of adult human mortality. Benjamin Gompertz showed in 1825 that the force of mortality rises exponentially with age, and William Makeham added an age-independent background term in 1860 to account for deaths from causes unrelated to ageing. The combined law expresses the hazard of death as a constant plus an exponentially increasing component, capturing the dominant shape of adult mortality with just three parameters.