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结构性断裂MA模型×结构突变自回归模型×
领域计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份1989–19921989-2003
提出者Perron (1989); Zivot & Andrews (1992)Perron (1989); Bai & Perron (1998, 2003)
类型Time series model with structural changeTime-series model with structural change
开创性文献Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. DOI ↗Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22. DOI ↗
别名MA model with structural change, broken MA model, MA with regime shift, structural break moving averageAR model with structural change, breakpoint AR model, piecewise autoregressive model, AR model with regime shifts
相关56
摘要A Moving Average (MA) time series model augmented to accommodate one or more structural breaks — abrupt shifts in the mean, variance, or MA coefficients occurring at known or unknown break dates. Ignoring structural breaks in an MA process inflates forecast errors and distorts inference on the error dynamics.The structural break AR model extends the standard autoregressive framework by allowing the intercept and autoregressive coefficients to shift at one or more unknown break dates. Each regime between consecutive break points is governed by its own AR parameters, capturing abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series caused by crises, policy shifts, or other shocks.
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  3. PUBLISHED

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ScholarGate方法对比: Structural Break MA Model · Structural Break AR Model. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare