方法对比

	Storm Surge Modeling	概率地震危险性分析 (PSHA)
领域	Disaster Studies	土木工程
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1992	1968
提出者	Chester Jelesnianski and colleagues (SLOSH); Joannes Westerink & Richard Luettich (ADCIRC)	C. Allin Cornell
类型	Hydrodynamic shallow-water simulation pipeline forced by tropical-cyclone winds	Quantitative probabilistic framework
开创性文献	Westerink, J. J., Luettich, R. A., Feyen, J. C., Atkinson, J. H., Dawson, C., Roberts, H. J., Powell, M. D., Dunion, J. P., Kubatko, E. J., & Pourtaheri, H. (2008). A Basin- to Channel-Scale Unstructured Grid Hurricane Storm Surge Model Applied to Southern Louisiana. Monthly Weather Review, 136(3), 833-864.	Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606.
别名	Hurricane Storm Surge Simulation, Coastal Surge Modeling, Surge Hindcast and Forecast Modeling, Hydrodynamic Surge Inundation Modeling	PSHA, seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment, Cornell-McGuire method
相关	3	1
摘要	Storm surge modeling simulates the abnormal rise of coastal water driven by a storm — principally the wind stress and low atmospheric pressure of a hurricane or extratropical cyclone — by solving the depth-integrated shallow-water equations of coastal hydrodynamics. The surge is the difference between the storm-driven water level and the normal astronomical tide, and it is the deadliest hazard of most landfalling hurricanes, capable of flooding low-lying coasts kilometers inland. The operational tradition began with Jelesnianski and colleagues' SLOSH model, documented in the 1992 NOAA technical report, which the National Weather Service still uses for real-time forecasting and evacuation planning. High-resolution research and design work increasingly uses the unstructured-grid ADCIRC model, whose application to southern Louisiana by Westerink, Luettich, and colleagues in 2008 set the standard for basin-to-channel-scale surge simulation. The defining challenges are representing the hurricane wind field accurately and resolving the complex coastal geometry — channels, marshes, and levees — that steers the water. The output is a time-evolving map of water level and overland inundation.	Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a quantitative engineering framework used in civil and geotechnical engineering to estimate the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed a specified intensity level at a site within a given time window. By combining earthquake source geometry, recurrence statistics, and ground-motion attenuation models, PSHA produces hazard curves and maps that inform seismic design codes, infrastructure planning, and risk management decisions.