方法对比
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| 随机系统动力学× | 系统动力学× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1980s–2000s | 1961 |
| 提出者≠ | Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers | Jay W. Forrester |
| 类型≠ | Continuous stochastic simulation | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling |
| 开创性文献 | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| 别名 | SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 3 |
| 摘要≠ | Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios. | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. |
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