方法对比
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| 随机系统动力学× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 仿真 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | 1980s–2000s | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Continuous stochastic simulation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics | — |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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