方法对比

	STEEP Structured Scanning	Emerging Issues Analysis
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003	2009
提出者	Foresight scanning tradition (categorized macro-environmental scanning); Joseph Voros (generic foresight process)	Graham T. T. Molitor; Hawai'i School / Millennium Project
类型	Categorized horizon-scanning pipeline for signals of change	Early-detection pipeline for issues on the S-curve of public attention
开创性文献	Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
别名	STEEP Analysis, STEEP Horizon Scanning, STEEP Framework Scanning, Categorized Environmental Scanning	Emerging Issue Analysis, EIA, Issues Emergence Analysis, Weak Signal Scanning
相关	4	3
摘要	STEEP structured scanning is a categorized horizon-scanning method that systematically sweeps the external environment for signals of change and sorts them into five domains — Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political. By imposing a fixed five-part taxonomy on an otherwise unbounded flood of information, STEEP forces analysts to look beyond the dimensions they habitually monitor and to give balanced attention to forces that might otherwise be ignored. The framework operationalizes the input or scanning stage of Joseph Voros's generic foresight process, providing the raw material of signals, trends, and emerging issues that later analysis interprets. As documented in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, categorized scanning is one of the foundational practices of strategic foresight, valued precisely because its discipline counteracts the natural tendency to over-monitor the familiar and under-monitor the surprising.	Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA) is a horizon-scanning method, associated with Graham Molitor and the Hawai'i School and codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, for detecting issues at the earliest, weakest-signal stage — long before they register as trends or reach public consciousness. Its organizing idea is that issues, like technologies, follow an S-curve of public attention: they begin in obscure, marginal sources, accelerate as advocates and specialists pick them up, and only later become widely recognized trends and finally mainstream concerns. The strategic value of catching an issue on the flat, early part of that curve is enormous, because that is when there is the most time and the most room to respond. EIA therefore deliberately scans the fringe — specialist literature, activist publications, patents, subcultures, marginal voices — to spot the small clouds on the horizon and position them on the issue lifecycle.