方法对比

	Static-99 Assessment	Recidivism Survival Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Survival analysis
起源年份	2000	1988
提出者	R. Karl Hanson & David Thornton	David R. Cox (method); Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte (criminological application)
类型	Actuarial sexual recidivism risk instrument	Time-to-event regression for reoffending
开创性文献	Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24(1), 119–136.	Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34(2), 187–202.
别名	Static-99, Static-99R, Static 99, Static-99 Sexual Recidivism Risk Tool	Time-to-Recidivism Modeling, Recidivism Hazard Modeling, Failure-Time Analysis of Reoffending, Survival Analysis of Reoffending
相关	4	4
摘要	Static-99, and its age-revised form Static-99R, is the most widely used actuarial instrument for estimating sexual and violent recidivism risk among adult male sexual offenders. It scores ten unchanging, historical risk factors into a total that maps onto a risk category and, via published norm tables, an estimated probability of reoffending — providing a standardized, evidence-based anchor for forensic risk decisions.	Recidivism survival analysis models the time from a release or index event until an individual reoffends, treating reoffending as a time-to-event ('failure') outcome with censoring for those not observed to fail. It applies survival methods — Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and split-population models — to answer not just whether someone recidivates but how quickly and what raises or lowers that risk over time.