方法对比

	Spatial Conflict Analysis	Conflict Diffusion Analysis
领域	International Relations	International Relations
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2002	2008
提出者	Spatial-analysis-of-conflict literature (e.g., Michael Ward & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch)	Conflict-diffusion literature (e.g., Most & Starr; Halvard Buhaug & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch)
类型	Spatial regression / spatial-statistical modeling of conflict	Spatial-temporal analysis of conflict contagion
开创性文献	Ward, M. D., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2002). Location, location, location: An MCMC approach to modeling the spatial context of war and peace. Political Analysis, 10(3), 244–260.	Buhaug, H., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2008). Contagion or confusion? Why conflicts cluster in space. International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 215–233.
别名	Spatial Analysis of War and Peace, Geographic Conflict Modeling, Spatial Econometrics of Conflict, Georeferenced Conflict Analysis	Conflict Contagion Analysis, Conflict Spillover Analysis, Spatial Diffusion of War, Conflict Spread Modeling
相关	3	3
摘要	Spatial conflict analysis models armed conflict while taking geography seriously: conflict is not randomly scattered but clusters in space, and a place's risk depends on its neighbors. Building on georeferenced data and spatial-statistical methods — as in Ward and Gleditsch's (2002) MCMC approach to the spatial context of war and peace — it uses spatial weights, tests for spatial autocorrelation, and fits spatial regression models so that conflict, peace, and their predictors are analyzed as interdependent across locations rather than as isolated observations.	Conflict diffusion analysis studies how conflict spreads from one place to another — across borders, between neighboring regions, over time. It addresses a sharp inferential challenge posed by Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008): conflicts cluster in space, but clustering can reflect either genuine contagion (a war next door actually raises your risk) or merely the fact that neighbors share war-prone conditions. Using spatial-temporal lags of neighboring conflict alongside covariates, and theorizing concrete transmission mechanisms such as refugee flows and transnational ethnic ties, the method tries to separate true diffusion from spurious co-location.