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| Singulate Mean Age at Marriage× | 生命表分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 人口学 | 人口学 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Survival analysis |
| 起源年份≠ | 1953 | 1984 |
| 提出者≠ | John Hajnal | Demographic/actuarial tradition; Chiang |
| 类型≠ | Indirect estimate of mean age at first marriage from census proportions | Age-structured mortality estimator |
| 开创性文献≠ | Hajnal, J. (1953). Age at marriage and proportions marrying. Population Studies, 7(2), 111–136. DOI ↗ | Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2 |
| 别名≠ | SMAM, Hajnal's Mean Age at Marriage, Singulate Mean Age at First Marriage | Mortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosu |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 3 |
| 摘要≠ | The singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) is an indirect demographic estimate of the average age at first marriage, computed entirely from the proportions of people who have never married by age, as recorded in a single census or survey. Introduced by John Hajnal in 1953, it sidesteps the need for registered marriage dates: by treating the never-married proportions as a synthetic-cohort survival curve in the single state, it recovers the mean number of years lived single before first marriage among those who eventually marry. | A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike. |
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