方法对比

	单盲自然实验	单盲随机对照试验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	Late 20th century (formalized practice)	1948 (formalized); single-blind variant established in mid-20th century clinical trial methodology
提出者	Conceptual synthesis of natural experiment tradition (Haavelmo, 1944; Campbell & Stanley, 1963) with single-blind methodology	Bradford Hill and colleagues (MRC streptomycin trial, 1948); blinding conventions codified in CONSORT guidelines
类型	Quasi-experimental design with partial blinding	Experimental design — blinded randomized trial
开创性文献	Dunning, T. (2012). Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-1107698000	Schulz, K. F., Altman, D. G., Moher, D., & CONSORT Group. (2010). CONSORT 2010 statement: Updated guidelines for reporting parallel group randomised trials. BMJ, 340, c332.
别名	single-masked natural experiment, blinded quasi-experiment, single-blind exogenous assignment study	single-masked RCT, single-blind RCT, single-blind trial, SB-RCT
相关	2	5
摘要	A single-blind natural experiment leverages an exogenous, researcher-uncontrolled event — such as a policy change, lottery, or natural disaster — to create treatment and comparison groups, while applying single-blind procedures so that either the participants or the outcome assessors (but not both) are unaware of group assignment. This design combines the causal leverage of natural variation with reduced measurement bias from blinding.	A single-blind randomized controlled trial (SB-RCT) is a rigorous experimental design in which participants are randomly assigned to treatment or control conditions while remaining unaware of which condition they have received. Investigators, outcome assessors, and data analysts are not blinded. By masking participants, the design eliminates placebo and nocebo response biases on the participant side, while preserving investigator flexibility to administer and monitor the intervention.